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| Titel |
The impact of large-scale circulation patterns on summer crop yields in IP |
| VerfasserIn |
Mirian Capa Morocho, Belén Rodríguez Fonseca, Margarita Ruiz Ramos |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250096436
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-11943.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Large-scale circulations patterns (ENSO, NAO) have been shown to have a significant impact
on seasonal weather, and therefore on crop yield over many parts of the world(Garnett and
Khandekar, 1992; Aasa et al., 2004; Rozas and Garcia-Gonzalez, 2012). In this study, we
analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns and regional climate on the principal
components of maize yield variability in Iberian Peninsula (IP) using reanalysis datasets.
Additionally, we investigate the modulation of these relationships by multidecadal
patterns.
This study is performed analyzing long time series of maize yield, only climate
dependent, computed with the crop model CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) included
in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5). To simulate
yields, reanalysis daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and
precipitation were used. The reanalysis climate data were obtained from National Center
for Environmental Prediction (20th Century and NCEP) and European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data server (ERA 40 and ERA Interim).
Simulations were run at five locations: Lugo (northwestern), Lerida (NE), Madrid (central),
Albacete (southeastern) and Córdoba (S IP) (Gabaldón et al., 2013). From these
time series standardized anomalies were calculated. Afterwards, time series were
time filtered to focus on the interannual-to-multiannual variability, splitting up in
two components: low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF) time scales. The
principal components of HF yield anomalies in IP were compared with a set of
documented patterns. These relationships were compared with multidecadal patterns, as
Atlanctic Multidecadal Oscillations (AMO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillations
(IPO).
The results of this study have important implications in crop forecasting. In this way, it
may have a positive impact on both public (agricultural planning) and private (decision
support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors, to take advantage of favorable conditions or
reduce the effect of adverse conditions.
Acknowledgements
Research by M. Capa-Morocho has been partly supported by a PICATA predoctoral
fellowship of the Moncloa Campus of International Excellence (UCM-UPM) and
MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02)
References
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circulation on plant phenological phases in central and eastern Europe. International Journal
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Gabaldón, C. et al. 2013. Evaluation of local strategies to climate change of maize crop in
Andalusia for the first half of 21st century. European Geosciences Union - General
Assembly2013 Vol. 15 (Vienna - Austria, 2013).
Garnett, E. R. and Khandekar, M. L. 1992. The impact of large-scale atmospheric
circulations and anomalies on Indian monsoon droughts and floods and on world grain
yields—a statistical analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 61, 113-128.
Jones, C. and Kiniry, J. 1986. CERES-Maize: A Simulation Model of Maize Growth and
Development. Texas A&M University Press, 194.
Rozas, V. and Garcia-Gonzalez, I. 2012. Non-stationary influence of El Nino-Southern
Oscillation and winter temperature on oak latewood growth in NW Iberian Peninsula. Int J
Biometeorol 56, 787-800. |
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