 |
| Titel |
Using ensemble climate projections to assess probabilistic hydrological change in the Nordic region |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Wetterhall, L. P. Graham, J. Andréasson, J. Rosberg, W. Yang |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 8 ; Nr. 11, no. 8 (2011-08-23), S.2295-2306 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009628
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-2295-2011.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Assessing hydrological effects of global climate change at local scales is
important for evaluating future hazards to society. However, applying
climate model projections to local impact models can be difficult as
outcomes can vary considerably between different climate models, and
including results from many models is demanding. This study combines
multiple climate model outputs with hydrological impact modelling through
the use of response surfaces. Response surfaces represent the sensitivity of
the impact model to incremental changes in climate variables and show
probabilies for reaching a priori determined thresholds. Response surfaces
were calculated using the HBV hydrological model for three basins in
Sweden. An ensemble of future climate projections was then superimposed onto
each response surface, producing a probability estimate for exceeding the
threshold being evaluated. Site specific impacts thresholds were used where
applicable. Probabilistic trends for future change in hazards or potential
can be shown and evaluated. It is particularly useful for visualising the
range of probable outcomes from climate models and can easily be updated
with new results as they are made available. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|