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| Titel |
Operational Global Deterministic and Ensemble Wave Prediction Systems at Environment Canada |
| VerfasserIn |
Natacha Bernier, Syd Peel, Jean-Marc Belanger, Michel Roch, Mario Lépine, Pierre Pellerin, José Henrique Alves, Hendrik Tolman |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250107522
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-7225.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Canada’s new global deterministic and ensemble wave prediction systems are presented
together with an evaluation of their performance over a 5 month hindcast. Particular attention
is paid to the Arctic Ocean where accurate forecasts are crucial for maintaining safe activities
such as drilling, and vessel operation.
The wave prediction systems are based on WAVEWATCHIII and are operated at grid
spacings of 1/4° (deterministic) and 1/2 ° (ensemble). Both systems are run twice daily with
lead times of 120h (5 days) for the deterministic systems and 240h (10 days) for the ensemble
system. The wave prediction systems will be shown to have skill in forecasting significant
wave height and peak period over the future several days. Beyond lead times of 120h,
deterministic forecasts are extended using ensembles of wave forecasts to generate
probabilistic forecasts for long-range events. New displays will be used to summarize the
wealth of information generated by ensembles into depictions that could help support early
warning systems. |
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