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| Titel |
Predicting outflow induced by moraine failure in glacial lakes: the Lake Palcacocha case from an uncertainty perspective |
| VerfasserIn |
D. S. Rivas, M. A. Somos-Valenzuela, B. R. Hodges, D. C. McKinney |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 6 ; Nr. 15, no. 6 (2015-06-09), S.1163-1179 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119528
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-1163-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Moraine dam collapse is one of the causes of glacial lake outburst floods.
Available models seek to predict both moraine breach formation and lake
outflow. The models depend on hydraulic, erosion, and geotechnical
parameters that are mostly unknown or uncertain. This paper estimates the
outflow hydrograph caused by a potential erosive collapse of the moraine dam
of Lake Palcacocha in Peru and quantifies the uncertainty of the results.
The overall aim is to provide a simple yet hydraulically robust approach for
calculating the expected outflow hydrographs that is useful for risk
assessment studies. To estimate the peak outflow and failure time of the
hydrograph, we assessed several available empirical equations based on lake
and moraine geometries; each equation has defined confidence intervals for
peak flow predictions. Complete outflow hydrographs for each peak flow
condition were modeled using a hydraulic simulation model calibrated to
match the peak flows estimated with the empirical equations. Failure time
and peak flow differences between the simulations, and the corresponding
empirical equations were used as error parameters. Along with an expected
hydrograph, lower and upper bound hydrographs were calculated for Lake
Palcacocha, representing the confidence interval of the results. The
approach has several advantages: first, it is simple and robust. Second, it
evaluates the capability of empirical equations to reproduce the conditions
of the lake and moraine dam. Third, this approach accounts for uncertainty
in the hydrographs estimations, which makes it appropriate for risk
management studies. |
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