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| Titel |
Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Benetazzo, F. Fedele, S. Carniel, A. Ricchi, E. Bucchignani, M. Sclavo |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 6 ; Nr. 12, no. 6 (2012-06-26), S.2065-2076 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010935
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-2065-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We present a study on expected wind wave severity changes in the Adriatic
Sea for the period 2070–2099 and their impact on extremes. To do so, the
phase-averaged spectral wave model SWAN is forced using wind fields computed
by the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the climate version
of the COSMO meteorological model downscaled from a global climate model
running under the IPCC-A1B emission scenario. Namely, the adopted wind
fields are given with a horizontal resolution of 14 km and 40 vertical
levels, and they are prepared by the Italian Aerospace Research Centre (CIRA). Firstly, in order to infer the wave model accuracy in predicting
seasonal variability and extreme events, SWAN results are validated against
a control simulation, which covers the period 1965–1994. In particular,
numerical predictions of the significant wave height Hs are compared
against available in-situ data. Further, a statistical analysis is carried
out to estimate changes on wave storms and extremes during the simulated
periods (control and future scenario simulations). In particular, the
generalized Pareto distribution is used to predict changes of storm peak
Hs for frequent and rare storms in the Adriatic Sea. Finally,
Borgman's theory is applied to estimate the spatial pattern of the expected maximum
wave height Hmax during a storm, both for the present climate and that
of the future scenario. Results show a future wave climate in the Adriatic
Sea milder than the present climate, even though increases of wave severity
can occur locally. |
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