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| Titel |
Stochastic index model for intermittent regimes: from preliminary analysis to regionalisation |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Rianna, F. Russo, F. Napolitano |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 4 ; Nr. 11, no. 4 (2011-04-27), S.1189-1203 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009350
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-1189-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
In small and medium-sized basins or in rivers characterized by intermittent
discharges, with low or negligible/null observed values for long periods of
the year, the correct representation of the discharge regime is important for
issues related to water management and to define the amount and quality of
water available for irrigation, domestic and recreational uses. In these
cases, only one index as a statistical metric is often not enough; it is thus
necessary to introduce Flow Duration Curves (FDC).
The aim of this study is therefore to combine a stochastic index flow model
capable of reproducing the FDC record period of a river, regardless of the
persistence and seasonality of the series, with the theory of total
probability in order to calculate how often a river is dry.
The paper draws from preliminary analyses, including a study to estimate the
correlation between discharge indicators Q95, Q50 and Q1
(discharges exceeding 95%, 50% or 1% of the time, respectively) and some
fundamental characteristics of the basin, as well as to identify homogeneous
regions in the target area through the study of several geo-morphological
features and climatic conditions. The stochastic model was then applied in
one of the homogeneous regions that includes intermittent rivers.
Finally, the model was regionalized by means of regression analysis in order
to calculate the FDC for ungauged basins; the reliability of this method was
tested using jack-knife validation. |
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