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| Titel |
Hydrological ensemble forecasting at ungauged basins: using neighbour catchments for model setup and updating |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Randrianasolo, M. H. Ramos, V. Andréassian |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Towards practical applications in ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting ; Nr. 29 (2011-02-25), S.1-11 |
| Datensatznummer |
250016928
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-29-1-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In flow forecasting, additionally to the need of long time series of
historic discharges for model setup and calibration, hydrological models
also need real-time discharge data for the updating of the initial
conditions at the time of the forecasts. The need of data challenges
operational flow forecasting at ungauged or poorly gauged sites. This study
evaluates the performance of different choices of parameter sets and
discharge updates to run a flow forecasting model at ungauged sites, based
on information from neighbour catchments. A cross-validation approach is
applied on a set of 211 catchments in France and a 17-month forecasting
period is used to calculate skill scores and evaluate the quality of the
forecasts. A reference situation, where local information is available, is
compared to alternative situations, which include scenarios where no local
data is available at all and scenarios where local data started to be
collected at the beginning of the forecasting period. To cope with
uncertainties from rainfall forecasts, the model is driven by ensemble
weather forecasts from the PEARP-Météo-France ensemble prediction
system. The results show that neighbour catchments can contribute to provide
forecasts of good quality at ungauged sites, especially with the transfer of
parameter sets for model simulation. The added value of local data for the
operational updating of the hydrological ensemble forecasts is highlighted. |
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