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| Titel |
Understanding land surface response to changing South Asian monsoon in a warming climate |
| VerfasserIn |
M. V. S Ramarao, R. Krishnan, J. Sanjay, T. P. Sabin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 6, no. 2 ; Nr. 6, no. 2 (2015-09-11), S.569-582 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115477
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-6-569-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Recent studies have drawn attention to a significant weakening trend of the
South Asian monsoon circulation and an associated decrease in regional
rainfall during the last few decades. While surface temperatures over the
region have steadily risen during this period, most of the CMIP (Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project) global climate models have difficulties in
capturing the observed decrease of monsoon precipitation, thus limiting our
understanding of the regional land surface response to monsoonal changes.
This problem is investigated by performing two long-term simulation
experiments, with and without anthropogenic forcing, using a variable
resolution global climate model having high-resolution zooming over the
South Asian region. The present results indicate that anthropogenic effects
have considerably influenced the recent weakening of the monsoon circulation
and decline of precipitation. It is seen that the simulated increase of
surface temperature over the Indian region during the post-1950s is
accompanied by a significant decrease of monsoon precipitation and soil
moisture. Our analysis further reveals that the land surface response to
decrease of soil moisture is associated with significant reduction in
evapotranspiration over the Indian land region. A future projection, based
on the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using the same
high-resolution model indicates the possibility for detecting the
summer-time soil drying signal over the Indian region during the 21st
century in response to climate change. Given that these monsoon
hydrological changes have profound socio-economic implications the present
findings provide deeper insights and enhance our understanding of the
regional land surface response to the changing South Asian monsoon. While
this study is based on a single model realization, it is highly desirable to
have multiple realizations to establish the robustness of the results. |
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