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| Titel |
Spatiotemporal characterization of Ensemble Prediction Systems – the Mean-Variance of Logarithms (MVL) diagram |
| VerfasserIn |
J. M. Gutiérrez, C. Primo, M. A. Rodríguez, J. Fernandez |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 15, no. 1 ; Nr. 15, no. 1 (2008-02-13), S.109-114 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012558
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-15-109-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We present a novel approach to characterize and graphically represent the
spatiotemporal evolution of ensembles using a simple diagram. To this aim we
analyze the fluctuations obtained as differences between each member of the
ensemble and the control. The lognormal character of these fluctuations
suggests a characterization in terms of the first two moments of the
logarithmic transformed values. On one hand, the mean is associated with the
exponential growth in time. On the other hand, the variance accounts for the
spatial correlation and localization of fluctuations. In this paper we
introduce the MVL (Mean-Variance of Logarithms) diagram to intuitively
represent the interplay and evolution of these two quantities. We show that
this diagram uncovers useful information about the spatiotemporal dynamics of
the ensemble. Some universal features of the diagram are also described,
associated either with the nonlinear system or with the ensemble method and
illustrated using both toy models and numerical weather prediction systems. |
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