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| Titel |
Modelling and mapping climate change impacts on permafrost at high spatial resolution for an Arctic region with complex terrain |
| VerfasserIn |
Y. Zhang, X. Wang, R. Fraser, I. Olthof, W. Chen, D. Mclennan, S. Ponomarenko, W. Wu |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1994-0416
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: The Cryosphere ; 7, no. 4 ; Nr. 7, no. 4 (2013-07-18), S.1121-1137 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017991
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/tc-7-1121-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Most spatial modelling of climate change impacts on permafrost has been
conducted at half-degree latitude/longitude or coarser spatial resolution. At
such coarse resolution, topographic effects on insolation cannot be
considered accurately and the results are not suitable for land-use planning
and ecological assessment. Here we mapped climate change impacts on
permafrost from 1968 to 2100 at 10 m resolution using a process-based model
for Ivvavik National Park, an Arctic region with complex terrain in northern
Yukon, Canada. Soil and drainage conditions were defined based on ecosystem
types, which were mapped using SPOT imagery. Leaf area indices were mapped
using Landsat imagery and the ecosystem map. Climate distribution was
estimated based on elevation and station observations, and the effects of
topography on insolation were calculated based on slope, aspect and viewshed.
To reduce computation time, we clustered climate distribution and topographic
effects on insolation into discrete types. The modelled active-layer
thickness and permafrost distribution were comparable with field observations
and other studies. The map portrayed large variations in active-layer
thickness, with ecosystem types being the most important controlling
variable, followed by climate, including topographic effects on insolation.
The results show deepening in active-layer thickness and progressive
degradation of permafrost, although permafrost will persist in most of the
park during the 21st century. This study also shows that ground conditions and climate scenarios are the major sources of uncertainty for
high-resolution permafrost mapping. |
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