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| Titel |
Shear wave splitting as a proxy for stress forecast of the case of the 2006 Manyas-Kus Golu (Mb = 5.3) earthquake |
| VerfasserIn |
G. Polat, N. M. Ozel, S. Crampin, S. Ergintav, O. Tan |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 4 ; Nr. 12, no. 4 (2012-04-17), S.1073-1084 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010703
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-1073-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The 2006 Mb = 5.3 Manyas-Kus Golu (Manyas) earthquake has been
retrospectively "stress-forecasted" using variations in time-delays of seismic
shear wave splitting to evaluate the time and magnitude at which
stress-modified microcracking reaches fracture criticality within the
stressed volume where strain is released. We processed micro earthquakes
recorded by 29 TURDEP (Multi-Disciplinary Earthquake Research in High Risk Regions of Turkey) and 33 KOERI (Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute) stations in the Marmara region by using
the aspect-ratio cross-correlation and systematic analysis of crustal
anisotropy methods. The aim of the analysis is to determine changes in
delay-times, hence changes in stress, before and after the 2006 Manyas
earthquake. We observed that clear decreases in delay times before the
impending event, especially at the station GEMT are consistent with the
anisotropic poro-elasticity (APE) model of fluid-rock deformation, but we
could not observe similar changes at other stations surrounding the main
event. The logarithms of the duration of the stress-accumulation are
proportional (self-similar) to the magnitude of the impending event.
Although time and magnitude of th 2005 Manyas earthquake could have been
stress-forecasted, as has been recognized elsewhere, shear-wave splitting does
not appear to provide direct information about the location of impending
earthquakes. |
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