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| Titel |
Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, G. Blöschl |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 7 ; Nr. 18, no. 7 (2014-07-30), S.2735-2772 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120419
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-2735-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe
in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers
is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime
changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research
approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges
and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different
data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second
approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and
opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully
accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make
progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two
approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing
causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed
flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood
changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network. |
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