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| Titel |
Effect of climate change and variability on extreme rainfall intensity–frequency–duration relationships: a case study of Melbourne |
| VerfasserIn |
A. G. Yilmaz, I. Hossain, B. J. C. Perera |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 18, no. 10 ; Nr. 18, no. 10 (2014-10-15), S.4065-4076 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120497
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-18-4065-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The increased frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall events due to
anthropogenic climate change, and decadal and multi-decadal climate
variability question the stationary climate assumption. The possible
violation of stationarity in climate can cause erroneous estimation of
design rainfalls derived from extreme rainfall frequency analysis. This may
result in significant consequences for infrastructure and flood protection
projects since design rainfalls are essential input for design of these
projects. Therefore, there is a need to conduct frequency analysis of
extreme rainfall events in the context of non-stationarity, when
non-stationarity is present in extreme rainfall events. A methodology
consisting of threshold selection, extreme rainfall data (peaks over
threshold data) construction, trend and non-stationarity analysis, and
stationary and non-stationary generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) models
was developed in this paper to investigate trends and non-stationarity in
extreme rainfall events, and potential impacts of climate change and
variability on intensity–frequency–duration (IFD) relationships. The
methodology developed was successfully implemented using rainfall data from
an observation station in Melbourne (Australia) for storm durations ranging
from 6 min to 72 h. Although statistically significant trends were
detected in extreme rainfall data for storm durations of 30 min, 3 h
and 48 h, statistical non-stationarity tests and non-stationary GPD
models did not indicate non-stationarity for these storm durations and other
storm durations. It was also found that the stationary GPD models were
capable of fitting extreme rainfall data for all storm durations.
Furthermore, the IFD analysis showed that urban flash flood producing hourly
rainfall intensities have increased over time. |
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