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| Titel |
Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources in the Rio Grande Basin, Brazil |
| VerfasserIn |
M. T. Nóbrega, W. Collischonn, C. E. M. Tucci, A. R. Paz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 2 ; Nr. 15, no. 2 (2011-02-17), S.585-595 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012646
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-585-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We quantify uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on the discharge of
Rio Grande, a major tributary of the Paraná River in South America and
one of the most important basins in Brazil for water supply and
hydro-electric power generation. We consider uncertainty in climate
projections associated with the greenhouse-gas emission scenarios (A1b, A2,
B1, B2) and increases in global mean air temperature of 1 to 6° C for the
HadCM3 GCM (Global Circulation Model) as well as uncertainties related to
GCM structure. For the latter, multimodel runs using 6 GCMs (CCCMA CGCM31,
CSIRO Mk30, IPSL CM4, MPI ECHAM5, NCAR CCSM30, UKMO HadGEM1) and HadCM3 as
baseline, for a +2° C increase in global mean temperature. Pattern-scaled
GCM-outputs are applied to a large-scale hydrological model (MGB-IPH) of Rio
Grande Basin. Based on simulations using HadCM3, mean annual river discharge
increases, relative to the baseline or control run period (1961–1990), by
+5% to +10% under the SRES emissions scenarios and from +8% to
+51% with prescribed increases in global mean air temperature of between
1 and 6° C. Substantial uncertainty in projected changes to mean river
discharge (−28% to +13%) under the 2° C warming scenario is,
however, associated with the choice of GCM. We conclude that, in the case of
Rio Grande Basin, the most important source of uncertainty derives from the
GCM rather than the emission scenario or the magnitude of rise in mean
global temperature. |
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