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| Titel |
Agricultural losses related to frost events: use of the 850 hPa level temperature as an explanatory variable of the damage cost |
| VerfasserIn |
K. Papagiannaki, K. Lagouvardos, V. Kotroni, G. Papagiannakis |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 9 ; Nr. 14, no. 9 (2014-09-08), S.2375-2386 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118657
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-2375-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The objective of this study is the analysis of damaging frost events in
agriculture, by examining the relationship between the daily minimum
temperature in the lower atmosphere (at an isobaric level of 850 hPa) and
crop production losses. Furthermore, the study suggests a methodological
approach for estimating agriculture risk due to frost events, with the aim of
estimating the short-term probability and magnitude of frost-related
financial losses for different levels of 850 hPa temperature. Compared with
near-surface temperature forecasts, temperature forecasts at the level of
850 hPa are less influenced by varying weather conditions or by local
topographical features; thus, they constitute a more consistent indicator of
the forthcoming weather conditions.
The analysis of the daily monetary compensations for insured crop losses caused by weather events in Greece shows that, during the period 1999–2011, frost caused more damage to crop production than any other meteorological phenomenon. Two regions of different
geographical latitudes are examined further, to account for the differences
in the temperature ranges developed within their ecological environment.
Using a series of linear and logistic regressions, we found that minimum
temperature (at an 850 hPa level), grouped into three categories according
to its magnitude, and seasonality, are significant variables when trying to
explain crop damage costs, as well as to predict and quantify the likelihood
and magnitude of damaging frost events. |
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