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| Titel |
Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan – a data integration approach |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Okada, K. J. McAneney, K. Chen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 12 ; Nr. 11, no. 12 (2011-12-21), S.3373-3382 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009840
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-3373-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest
catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses
significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in
Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for
large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the
Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the
pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in
1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level.
Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information
System (GIS)-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance
losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the
potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data – census
information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood
water elevation data – this analysis finds that insurance losses for
residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US$
12.5 billion). Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial
lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total
economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the
flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and
extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval
(ARI) of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the
order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI
on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability
of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of
these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one
point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other
points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like that
presented here have implications for emergency management, the cost-benefit
of mitigation efforts and land-use planning. |
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