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| Titel |
The 2009–2010 Arctic stratospheric winter – general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Dörnbrack, M. C. Pitts, L. R. Poole, Y. J. Orsolini, K. Nishii, H. Nakamura |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 12, no. 8 ; Nr. 12, no. 8 (2012-04-19), S.3659-3675 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011068
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-12-3659-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The relatively warm 2009–2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the
North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative
values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter
inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are
presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the
polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put
on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter
after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward
propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)
occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex
period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by
spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period
in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in
more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an
operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the
mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that
the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the
major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However,
the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying
the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event. |
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