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| Titel |
The influence of constrained fossil fuel emissions scenarios on climate and water resource projections |
| VerfasserIn |
J. D. Ward, A. D. Werner, W. P. Nel, S. Beecham |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 6 ; Nr. 15, no. 6 (2011-06-21), S.1879-1893 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012857
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-1879-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Water resources planning requires long-term projections of the impact of
climate change on freshwater resources. In addition to intrinsic uncertainty
associated with the natural climate, projections of climate change are
subject to the combined uncertainties associated with selection of emissions
scenarios, GCM ensembles and downscaling techniques. In particular, unknown
future greenhouse gas emissions contribute substantially to the overall
uncertainty. We contend that a reduction in uncertainty is possible by
refining emissions scenarios. We present a comprehensive review of the
growing body of literature that challenges the assumptions underlying the
high-growth emissions scenarios (widely used in climate change impact
studies), and instead points to a peak and decline in fossil fuel production
occurring in the 21st century. We find that the IPCC's new RCP 4.5
scenario (low-medium emissions), as well as the B1 and A1T (low emissions)
marker scenarios from the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios are
broadly consistent with the majority of recent fossil fuel production
forecasts, whereas the medium to high emissions scenarios generally depend
upon unrealistic assumptions of future fossil fuel production. We use a
simple case study of projected climate change in 2070 for the Scott Creek
catchment in South Australia to demonstrate that even with the current suite
of climate models, by limiting projections to the B1 scenario, both the
median change and the spread of model results are reduced relative to
equivalent projections under an unrealistic high emissions scenario (A1FI). |
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