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| Titel |
Comparative flood damage model assessment: towards a European approach |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, P. J. Ward |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 12 ; Nr. 12, no. 12 (2012-12-19), S.3733-3752 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011263
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-3733-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| There is a wide variety of flood damage models in use internationally,
differing substantially in their approaches and economic estimates. Since
these models are being used more and more as a basis for investment and
planning decisions on an increasingly large scale, there is a need to reduce
the uncertainties involved and develop a harmonised European approach, in
particular with respect to the EU Flood Risks Directive. In this paper we
present a qualitative and quantitative assessment of seven flood damage
models, using two case studies of past flood events in Germany and the
United Kingdom. The qualitative analysis shows that modelling approaches
vary strongly, and that current methodologies for estimating infrastructural
damage are not as well developed as methodologies for the estimation of
damage to buildings. The quantitative results show that the model outcomes
are very sensitive to uncertainty in both vulnerability (i.e. depth–damage
functions) and exposure (i.e. asset values), whereby the first has a larger
effect than the latter. We conclude that care needs to be taken when using
aggregated land use data for flood risk assessment, and that it is essential
to adjust asset values to the regional economic situation and property
characteristics. We call for the development of a flexible but consistent
European framework that applies best practice from existing models while
providing room for including necessary regional adjustments. |
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