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| Titel |
Predictability of the Barents Sea ice in early winter: Remote effects of oceanic and atmospheric thermal conditions from the North Atlantic |
| VerfasserIn |
Takuya Nakanowatari, Kazutoshi Sato, Jun Inoue |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250105820
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-8873.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Predictability of sea ice concentrations (SICs) in the Barents Sea in early winter (November-December) is studied using canonical correlation analysis with atmospheric and ocean anomalies from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) data. We find that the highest prediction skill for a single-predictor model is obtained from the 13-month lead subsurface temperature at 200-m depth (T200) and the in-phase meridional surface wind (Vsfc). T200 skillfully predicts SIC variability in 35% of the Barents Sea, mainly in the eastern side. The T200 for negative sea-ice anomalies exhibits warm anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature downstream of the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC) on a decadal timescale. The diagnostic analysis of NCEP-CFSR data suggests that the subsurface temperature anomaly stored below the thermocline during summer re-emerges in late autumn by atmospheric cooling and affects the sea-ice. The subsurface temperature anomaly of the NwASC is advected from the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over about 3 years. Vsfc skillfully predicts SIC variability in 32% of the Barents Sea, mainly in the western side. The Vsfc for the negative sea-ice anomalies exhibits southerly wind anomalies. Vsfc is related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Eurasian continent. Our study suggests that both atmospheric and oceanic remote effects have a potential impact on the forecasting accuracy of SIC. |
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