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| Titel |
GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Alfieri, P. Burek, E. Dutra, B. Krzeminski, D. Muraro, J. Thielen, F. Pappenberger |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 3 ; Nr. 17, no. 3 (2013-03-15), S.1161-1175 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018830
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-1161-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Anticipation and preparedness for large-scale flood events have a key role
in mitigating their impact and optimizing the strategic planning of water
resources. Although several developed countries have well-established
systems for river monitoring and flood early warning, figures of populations
affected every year by floods in developing countries are unsettling. This
paper presents the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), which has been set up to
provide an overview on upcoming floods in large world river basins. GloFAS is based on distributed hydrological
simulation of numerical ensemble weather predictions with global coverage.
Streamflow forecasts are compared statistically to climatological
simulations to detect probabilistic exceedance of warning thresholds. In
this article, the system setup is described, together with an evaluation of
its performance over a two-year test period and a qualitative analysis of a
case study for the Pakistan flood, in summer 2010. It is shown that
hazardous events in large river basins can be skilfully detected with a
forecast horizon of up to 1 month. In addition, results suggest that an
accurate simulation of initial model conditions and an improved
parameterization of the hydrological model are key components to reproduce
accurately the streamflow variability in the many different runoff regimes
of the earth. |
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