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| Titel |
The effect of uncertainty in earthquake fault parameters on the maximum wave height from a tsunami propagation model |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Burbidge, C. Mueller, W. Power |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 10 ; Nr. 15, no. 10 (2015-10-12), S.2299-2312 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119719
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-2299-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Over the last decade precomputed tsunami propagation model databases
have been used extensively for both tsunami forecasting and hazard and risk
assessment. However, the effect of uncertainty in the earthquake source
parameters on the results of the simulated scenarios of tsunami propagation
has not always been examined in great detail. Here we have undertaken a
systematic study of the uncertainty in the maximum wave height of a tsunami
(hmax) as a function of the uncertainty in the rupture parameters
of the earthquake that generates it (specifically the strike, dip, rake,
depth and magnitude). We have shown that even for the simple case of a
tsunami propagating over flat bathymetry, the coefficient of variation (CoV)
and skewness of the distribution of hmax was a complex function
of the choice of rupture parameter, distance and azimuth. The relationships
between these parameters and CoV became even more complex as the bathymetry
used became more realistic. This has major potential implications for both
how warning centres operate in the future and how the uncertainty in
parameters describing the source should be incorporated into future
probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments. |
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