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| Titel |
An ecohydrological model of malaria outbreaks |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Montosi, S. Manzoni, A. Porporato, A. Montanari |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 8 ; Nr. 16, no. 8 (2012-08-16), S.2759-2769 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013426
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-2759-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Malaria is a geographically widespread infectious disease that is well known
to be affected by climate variability at both seasonal and interannual
timescales. In an effort to identify climatic factors that impact malaria
dynamics, there has been considerable research focused on the development of
appropriate disease models for malaria transmission driven by climatic time
series. These analyses have focused largely on variation
in temperature and rainfall as direct climatic drivers of malaria dynamics.
Here, we further these efforts by considering additionally the role that soil
water content may play in driving malaria incidence. Specifically, we
hypothesize that hydro-climatic variability should be an important factor in
controlling the availability of mosquito habitats, thereby governing mosquito
growth rates. To test this hypothesis, we reduce a nonlinear ecohydrological
model to a simple linear model through a series of consecutive assumptions
and apply this model to malaria incidence data from three South African
provinces. Despite the assumptions made in the reduction of the model, we
show that soil water content can account for a significant portion of
malaria's case variability beyond its seasonal patterns, whereas neither
temperature nor rainfall alone can do so. Future work should therefore
consider soil water content as a simple and computable variable for
incorporation into climate-driven disease models of malaria and other
vector-borne infectious diseases. |
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