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| Titel |
Development of streamflow projections under changing climate conditions over Colorado River basin headwaters |
| VerfasserIn |
W. P. Miller, T. C. Piechota, S. Gangopadhyay, T. Pruitt |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 7 ; Nr. 15, no. 7 (2011-07-13), S.2145-2164 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012885
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-2145-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The current drought over the Colorado River Basin has raised concerns that
the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) may
impose water shortages over the lower portion of the basin for the first
time in history. The guidelines that determine levels of shortage are
affected by relatively short-term (3 to 7 month) forecasts determined by the
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) using the National Weather
Service (NWS) River Forecasting System (RFS) hydrologic model. While these
forecasts by the CBRFC are useful, water managers within the basin are
interested in long-term projections of streamflow, particularly under
changing climate conditions. In this study, a bias-corrected, statistically
downscaled dataset of projected climate is used to force the NWS RFS
utilized by the CBRFC to derive projections of streamflow over the Green,
Gunnison, and San Juan River headwater basins located within the Colorado
River Basin. This study evaluates the impact of changing climate to
evapotranspiration rates and contributes to a better understanding of how
hydrologic processes change under varying climate conditions. The impact to
evapotranspiration rates is taken into consideration and incorporated into
the development of streamflow projections over Colorado River headwater
basins in this study. Additionally, the NWS RFS is modified to account for
impacts to evapotranspiration due to changing temperature over the basin.
Adjusting evapotranspiration demands resulted in a 6 % to 13 % average
decrease in runoff over the Gunnison River Basin when compared to static
evapotranspiration rates. Streamflow projections derived using projections
of future climate and the NWS RFS provided by the CBRFC resulted in
decreased runoff in 2 of the 3 basins considered. Over the Gunnison and San
Juan River basins, a 10 % to 15 % average decrease in basin runoff is
projected through the year 2099. However, over the Green River basin, a
5 % to 8 % increase in basin runoff is projected through 2099. Evidence
of nonstationary behavior is apparent over the Gunnison and San Juan River
basins. |
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