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| Titel |
Mesoscale predictability under various synoptic regimes |
| VerfasserIn |
W. A. Nuss, D. K. Miller |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 8, no. 6 ; Nr. 8, no. 6, S.429-438 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005887
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-8-429-2001.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Numerical model
experiments using slightly rotated terrain are compared to gauge the
sentivity of mesoscale forecasts to small perturbations that arise due to
small synoptic-scale wind direction errors relative to topographic
features. The surface and above surface wind speed errors, as well as the
precipitation forecast errors, are examined for a landfalling cold front
that occurred during the California Landfalling Jets (CALJET) experiment.
The slight rotation in the terrain results in nearly identical
synoptic-scale forecasts, but result in substantial forecast errors on the
mesoscale in both wind and precipitation. The largest mesoscale errors
occur when the front interacts with the topography, which feeds back on
the frontal dynamics to produce differing frontal structures, which, in
turn, result in mesoscale errors as large as 40% (60%) of the observed
mesoscale variability in rainfall (winds). This sensitivity differs for
the two rotations and a simple average can still have a substantial error.
The magnitude of these errors is very large given the size of the
perturbation, which raises concerns about the predictability of the
detailed mesoscale structure for landfalling fronts. |
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