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| Titel |
Proposal of a Spatial Decision Support System architecture to estimate the consequences and costs of small meteorites impacts |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Garbolino, P. Michel |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 11 ; Nr. 11, no. 11 (2011-11-11), S.3013-3021 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009783
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-3013-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| On a frequency, depending on their size, small celestial bodies enter into
the Earth atmosphere and collide with our planet. On a daily basis, the size
is likely to be about 20 cm, while for monthly events the largest it may be
is about 1 m. The last significant witnessed event occurred in 1908 in the
Siberian area of the Tunguska. The forest was devastated over an area of
2000 km2. According to recent estimates, this kind of event could occur
with a frequency of one per hundred to thousand years. Since the last
century, the demography and the urbanisation have significantly increased.
Although the probability that such an event occurs over a populated area
remains small, if this happened, it could cause significant damages
(industrial, shopping centres, recreational places, etc.). From the analysis of
the data on meteorites that have impacted the Earth, of the orbital and size
properties of small threatening bodies as well as their potential impact
outcome, this paper proposes a methodology to estimate the damage resulting
from the impact of objects of given sizes. The considered sizes are up to
the maximum threshold for local damages (less than a hundred metres in
diameter) on some given territory. This approach is based on an initial
definition phase of collision scenarios. Then, a second phase consisting of
the accurate modelling of the territory, taking into account the land-use,
the spatial distribution of the populations and goods, and the
characterisation of the biophysical vulnerability of the stakes using
thresholds of dangerous phenomena (overpressures). The third phase is
related to the impact simulation on the territory, the estimation of the
stakes potentially exposed and the costs of the destruction. The aim
of this paper is to make a demonstration of principle, using as a study case
the city of Nice that benefits from a complete database of infrastructures. |
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