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| Titel |
Recent trends and climatic perspectives of hailstorms frequency and intensity in Tuscany and Central Italy |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Piani, A. Crisci, G. Chiara, G. Maracchi, F. Meneguzzo |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 5, no. 2 ; Nr. 5, no. 2 (2005-02-14), S.217-224 |
| Datensatznummer |
250002333
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-5-217-2005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The damages from climatic extremes have dramatically increased in the last
decades in Europe, as likely outcomes of climate change: floods, droughts,
heat waves and hailstorms have brought local as well as widespread damages
to farmers, industry, infrastructures and society, to insurance and
reinsurance companies; in this work we deal with the hailstorm hazard. The
NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (2.5 by 2.5° lat-lon) over the Italian area and
the hailstorm reports at several sites are used to identify few forcings for
hailstorms; statistical relationships linking forcings and hailstorm
frequencies are derived. Such relationships are applied to the same forcings
derived from the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario provided by the Canadian Centre
for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma; resolution approximately 3.75 by
3.75° lat-lon), to evaluate the expected changes of the frequency of
hailstorms. The time series of the forcings from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis
and the CCCma climate scenario in the past decades are compared in order to
assess the reliability and accuracy of the predictions of the future
hailstorm hazard.
It is shown that the climate scenario provides a fairly faithful
representation of the past trends of the forcings relevant to the hailstorms
frequency and that such quantity, hence the hailstorm hazard, is growing and
will likely grow in the future over the limited area taken into
consideration in this study. |
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