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| Titel |
Evaluation of the CPTEC/AGCM wind forecasts during the hurricane Catarina occurrence |
| VerfasserIn |
A. F. Santos, A. M. Mendonça, J. P. Bonatti, J. G. Z. Mattos, P. Y. Kubota, S. R. Freitas, M. A. F. Silva Dias, E. Ramirez, R. Camayo |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 2nd EGU Alexander von Humboldt Conference "The role of Geophysics in Natural Disaster Prevention" ; Nr. 14 (2008-05-07), S.317-326 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012120
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-14-317-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In March 2004 occurred the first hurricane registered at South Atlantic
Ocean. The system named Catarina begun as an extratropical cyclone and
remained quasi-stationary some days over the South Atlantic Ocean. The system
displaced westward, acquiring characteristics of a hurricane and hit the
Brazilian State of Santa Catarina (SC) between the 27 and the 28 March, causing
destruction and deaths. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the Center
for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies, Atmospheric Global Circulation
Model (CPTEC/AGCM) forecast performance of some synoptic patterns associated
with Catarina. The surface wind and reduced Sea Level Pressure (SLP) were
examined. Moreover, the implementation of 10-m wind forecast (V10m) was
evaluated. This variable was not available in the CPTEC/AGCM during the
Catarina occurrence and in this study it was compared with the wind at first
sigma-level of the AGCM. The CPTEC-Eta reanalyses were used to comparisons.
According to reanalyses, more intense winds were observed in northeast, south
and southwest edges of the cyclone. The system was not predicted by
the CPTEC/AGCM forecasts longer than 24 h, then the analyses were carried out
only for 24 h forecasts. In general, the first sigma-level wind forecasts
underestimated the wind magnitude and the cyclone intensity. However, the
Catarina formation and its displacement southeastward between the 20 and the 21 March
were well represented by the model. The CPTEC/AGCM presents deficiencies to
predict the system intensity, but in short-range forecasts it was possible to predict the system formation and its atypical trajectory. The wind results
from the new implementation did not exhibit better performance compared
with the wind at first sigma-level. These results will be better investigated
in the future. |
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