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| Titel |
Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management |
| VerfasserIn |
H. Staffler, R. Pollinger, A. Zischg, P. Mani |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 8, no. 3 ; Nr. 8, no. 3 (2008-06-12), S.539-558 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005532
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-8-539-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The main goals of this study were to identify the alpine torrent catchments
that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the
methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to
specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the
identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate
scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case
studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to
the delimited hazard zones were studied.
The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments,
where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate
speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes
like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of
protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high
spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In
sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet
future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention
basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected
by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation
intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of
future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for
the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the
uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps
in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would
provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future
climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection
structures in future will become more important in risk management
activities. |
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