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| Titel |
Changes of the Arctic sea ice conditions under the Global Warming |
| VerfasserIn |
S. V. Shutilin, A. P. Makshtas, G. V. Alekseev |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250025339
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The negative trend of the Arctic sea ice cover in September for period of satellite
observations (1979-2007) has reached 26.6% (9.5% per decade) for the whole Arctic and
63% (16.6% per decade) for the Siberian shelf seas. During 1997 - 2007 there was an
acceleration of reduction of ice area in the Arctic in September, which has reach 26% for the
specified period for the Arctic Ocean and up to 79% for of the Siberian shelf seas. The most
probable reason of acceleration of such sea ice area reduction is the amplified increasing of
positive air temperature during summer season. Simulations of the Arctic sea ice by the
dynamic-thermodynamic model developed in the Arctic and Antarctic Research institute with
atmospheric forcing from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis more adequately reproduced as against
ensemble of models CMIP, the accelerated reduction of the area of sea ice last decade,
including abnormal position of border of ice cover in September 2007 and 2008. The reason
of less sea ice area reduction in the most of global models from observations is probably
connected to underestimation of the increase of summer air temperature in the Arctic region
by these models. Atmospheric forcing from CCSR/NIES/FRCGC model from CMIP
ensemble, which more close reproduce the summer air temperature to the observed, have
been used for simulations by dynamic-thermodynamic model of the Arctic sea ice aimed to
the forecast of ice extent changes up to the middle XXI century. |
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