| The main purpose of this study is to develop a methodology for a
multidisciplinary nuclear risk and vulnerability assessment, and to test
this methodology through estimation of a nuclear risk to population in the
Northern European countries in case of a severe accident at the nuclear risk
sites. For assessment of the probabilistic risk and vulnerability, a
combination of social-geophysical factors and probabilities are considered.
The main focus of this paper is the description of methodology for evaluation
of the atmospheric transport of radioactive releases from the risk site
regions based on the long-term trajectory modeling. The suggested methodology
is given from the probabilistic point of view. The main questions stated are:
What are probabilities and times for radionuclide atmospheric
transport to different neighbouring countries and territories in case of the
hypothetical accidental release at the nuclear risk site? Which geographical
territories or countries are at the highest risk from the hypothetical
accidental releases?
To answer these questions we suggest applying the following research tools
for probabilistic atmospheric studies. First tool is atmospheric modelling
to calculate multiyear forward trajectories originated over the sites.
Second tool is statistical analyses to explore temporal and spatial
structure of calculated trajectories and evaluate different probabilistic
impact indicators: atmospheric transport pathways, airflow, fast transport,
typical transport time, maximum possible impact zone, maximum reaching
distance, etc. These indicators are applicable for further GIS-analysis and
integration to estimate regional risk and vulnerability in case of
accidental releases at the risk sites and for planning the emergency
response and preparedness systems. |