 |
| Titel |
Constraints on climate sensitivity from radiation patterns in climate models |
| VerfasserIn |
M. B. Huber, R. Knutti, I. Mahlstein, M. Wild |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2009
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 11 (2009) |
| Datensatznummer |
250022515
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The estimated range of climate sensitivity, or the equilibrium warming resulting from a
doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, has not decreased substantially in
past decades. New statistical methods for estimating the climate sensitivity have been
proposed and provide a better quantification of relative probabilities of climate sensitivity
within the almost canonical range of 2 K - 4.5 K, but large uncertainties remain, in particular
for the upper bound. Simple indices of spatial radiation patterns are used here to establish a
relationship between an observable radiative quantity and the equilibrium climate
sensitivity. The indices are mainly computed for the CMIP3 multi-model data set
along with the perturbed physics ensemble from climateprediction.net, where the
latter provides some insights into the robustness of our findings using the CMIP3
models. The indices offer a possibility to constrain climate sensitivity by considering
radiation patterns in the climate system. The ERA40 and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
data sets are used as observational reference values. High correlations between
the indices and climate sensitivity are found in the longwave regime, most likely
related to the uncertainty in cloud feedbacks, which are still the largest source of
uncertainty for climate sensitivity. The largest fraction of the estimated climate
sensitivities lies in the range between 2.5 K - 5.0 K for both data sets. For indices
with a correlation coefficient above |
|
|
|
|
|
|