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| Titel |
Reconstructing and analyzing China's fifty-nine year (1951–2009) drought history using hydrological model simulation |
| VerfasserIn |
Z. Y. Wu, G. H. Lu, L. Wen, C. A. Lin |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 9 ; Nr. 15, no. 9 (2011-09-15), S.2881-2894 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012960
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-2881-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The 1951–2009 drought history of China is reconstructed using daily soil
moisture values generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land
surface macroscale hydrology model. VIC is applied over a grid of 10 458
points with a spatial resolution of 30 km × 30 km, and is driven by
observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation from
624 long-term meteorological stations. The VIC soil moisture is used to
calculate the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI), which can be
used as a measure of the severity of agricultural drought on a global basis.
We have developed a SMAPI-based drought identification procedure for
practical uses in the identification of both grid point and regional drought
events. As a result, a total of 325 regional drought events varying in time
and strength are identified from China's nine drought study regions. These
drought events can thus be assessed quantitatively at different spatial and
temporal scales. The result shows that the severe drought events of 1978,
2000 and 2006 are well reconstructed, which indicates that the SMAPI is capable
of identifying the onset of a drought event, its progression, as well as its
termination. Spatial and temporal variations of droughts in China's nine
drought study regions are studied. Our result shows that on average, up to
30% of the total area of China is prone to drought. Regionally, an upward
trend in drought-affected areas has been detected in three regions (Inner
Mongolia, Northeast and North) from 1951–2009. However, the decadal
variability of droughts has been weak in the rest of the five regions
(South, Southwest, East, Northwest, and Tibet). Xinjiang has even been
showing steadily wetter since the 1950s. Two regional dry centres are
discovered in China as the result of a combined analysis on the occurrence
of drought events from both grid points and drought study regions. The first
centre is located in the area partially covered by the North and the Northwest,
which extends to the southeastern portion of Inner Mongolia and the
southwest part of Northeast. The second one is found on the central to
southern portion of the South. Our study demonstrates the applicability and the
value of using modeled soil moisture for reconstructing drought histories,
and the SMAPI is useful for analyzing drought at different spatial and temporal
scales. |
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