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| Titel |
Diagnostic statistics of daily rainfall variability in an evolving climate |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Panagoulia, A. Bárdossy, G. Lourmas |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7340
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: 7th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms (2005) ; Nr. 7 (2006-06-20), S.349-354 |
| Datensatznummer |
250004315
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/adgeo-7-349-2006.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| To investigate the character of daily rainfall variability under present and
future climate described via global warming a suite of diagnostic statistics
was used. The rainfall was modeled as a stochastic process coupled with
atmospheric circulation. In this study we used an automated objective
classification of daily patterns based on optimized fuzzy rules. This kind
of classification method provided circulation patterns suitable for
downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM)-generated precipitation. The
precipitation diagnostics included first and second order moments, wet and
dry-day renewal process probabilities and spell lengths as well as
low-frequency variability via the standard deviation of monthly totals.
These descriptors were applied to nine elevation zones and entire area of
the Mesochora mountainous catchment in Central Greece for observed,
1×CO2 and 2×CO2 downscaled precipitation. The statistics'
comparison revealed significant differences in the most of the daily
diagnostics (e.g. mean wet-day amount, 95th percentile of wet-day
amount, dry to wet probability), spell statistics (e.g. mean wet/dry spell
length), and low-frequency diagnostic (standard deviation of monthly
precipitation total) between warm (2×CO2) and observed scenario in a
progressive rate from lower to upper zone. The differences were very greater
for the catchment area. In the light of these results, an increase in
rainfall occurrence with diminished rainfall amount and a
sequence of less consecutive dry days could describe the behaviour of a
possible future climate on the examined catchment. |
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