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| Titel |
Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Montrasio, R. Valentino, G. L. Losi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 7 ; Nr. 11, no. 7 (2011-07-12), S.1927-1947 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009562
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-1927-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
In the framework of landslide risk management, it appears relevant to
assess, both in space and in time, the triggering of rainfall-induced
shallow landslides, in order to prevent damages due to these kind of
disasters. In this context, the use of real-time landslide early warning
systems has been attracting more and more attention from the scientific
community. This paper deals with the application, on a regional scale, of
two physically-based stability models: SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability
Prediction) and TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based
Regional Slope-stability analysis). A back analysis of some recent
case-histories of soil slips which occurred in the territory of the central Emilian
Apennine, Emilia Romagna Region (Northern Italy) is carried out and the main
results are shown. The study area is described from geological and climatic
viewpoints. The acquisition of geospatial information regarding the
topography, the soil properties and the local landslide inventory is also
explained.
The paper outlines the main features of the SLIP model and the basic
assumptions of TRIGRS. Particular attention is devoted to the discussion of
the input data, which have been stored and managed through a Geographic
Information System (GIS) platform. Results of the SLIP model on a regional
scale, over a one year time interval, are finally presented. The results
predicted by the SLIP model are analysed both in terms of safety factor
(Fs) maps, corresponding to particular rainfall events, and in terms of
time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the considered time interval.
The paper compares observed landslide localizations with those predicted by
the SLIP model. A further quantitative comparison between SLIP and TRIGRS,
both applied to the most important event occurred during the analysed period,
is presented. The limits of the SLIP model, mainly due to some restrictions of
simplifying the physically based relationships, are analysed in detail.
Although an improvement, in terms of spatial accuracy, is needed, thanks to
the fast calculation and the satisfactory temporal prediction of landslides,
the SLIP model applied on the study area shows certain potential as a
landslides forecasting tool on a regional scale. |
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