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| Titel |
Circulation pattern based parameterization of a multiplicative random cascade for disaggregation of observed and projected daily rainfall time series |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Lisniak, J. Franke, C. Bernhofer |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 7 ; Nr. 17, no. 7 (2013-07-05), S.2487-2500 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018918
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-2487-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The use of multiplicative random cascades (MRCs) for temporal rainfall
disaggregation has been extensively studied in the past. MRCs are appealing
for rainfall disaggregation due to their formal simplicity and the
possibility to extract the model parameters directly from observed high
resolution rainfall data. These parameters, however, represent the rainfall
characteristics of the observation period. Since rainfall characteristics of
different time slices are changing due to climate variability, we propose a
parameterization approach for MRCs to adjust the parameters according to
past (observed) or future (projected) time series. This is done on the basis
of circulation patterns (CPs) by extracting a distinct MRC parameterization
from high resolution rainfall data, as observed on days governed by each
individual CP. The parameterization approach is tested by comparing the
statistical properties of disaggregated rainfall time series of two time
slices, 1969–1979 and 1989–1999, to the results obtained by two other
disaggregation methods (a conceptually similar MRC without CP-based
parameterization and a recombination approach) and to the statistical
properties of observed hourly rainfall data. In this context, all three
approaches use rainfall data of the time slice 1989–1999 for
parameterization. We found that the inclusion of CPs into the
parameterization of a MRC yields hourly time series that better reproduce
the properties of observed rainfall in time slice 1989–1999, as compared to
the simple MRC. Despite similar results of both MRCs in the validation
period of 1969–1979, we can conclude that the CP-based parameterization
approach is applicable for temporal rainfall disaggregation in time slices
distinct from the parameterization period. This approach accounts for
changes in rainfall characteristics due to changes in the frequency of
occurrence of the CPs and allows generating hourly rainfall from daily data,
as often provided by a statistical downscaling of global climate change. |
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