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| Titel |
Future emissions from shipping and petroleum activities in the Arctic |
| VerfasserIn |
G. P. Peters, T. B. Nilssen, L. Lindholt, M. S. Eide, S. Glomsrød, L. I. Eide, J. S. Fuglestvedt |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 11, no. 11 ; Nr. 11, no. 11 (2011-06-06), S.5305-5320 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009804
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-11-5305-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Arctic sea-ice is retreating faster than predicted by climate models and
could become ice free during summer this century. The reduced sea-ice extent
may effectively "unlock" the Arctic Ocean to increased human activities
such as transit shipping and expanded oil and gas production. Travel time
between Europe and the north Pacific Region can be reduced by up to 50 %
with low sea-ice levels and the use of this route could increase
substantially as the sea-ice retreats. Oil and gas activities already occur
in the Arctic region and given the large undiscovered petroleum resources
increased activity could be expected with reduced sea-ice. We use a
bottom-up shipping model and a detailed global energy market model to
construct emission inventories of Arctic shipping and petroleum activities
in 2030 and 2050 given estimated sea-ice extents. The emission inventories
are on a 1×1 degree grid and cover both short-lived components
(SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, BC, OC) and the long-lived greenhouse gases
(CO2, CH4, N2O). We find rapid growth in transit shipping due
to increased profitability with the shorter transit times compensating for
increased costs in traversing areas of sea-ice. Oil and gas production
remains relatively stable leading to reduced emissions from emission factor
improvements. The location of oil and gas production moves into locations
requiring more ship transport relative to pipeline transport, leading to
rapid emissions growth from oil and gas transport via ship. Our emission
inventories for the Arctic region will be used as input into chemical
transport, radiative transfer, and climate models to quantify the role of
Arctic activities in climate change compared to similar emissions occurring
outside of the Arctic region. |
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