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| Titel |
Written records of historical tsunamis in the northeastern South China Sea – challenges associated with developing a new integrated database |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Y. A. Lau, A. D. Switzer, D. Dominey-Howes, J. C. Aitchison, Y. Zong |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 9 ; Nr. 10, no. 9 (2010-09-01), S.1793-1806 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008392
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-1793-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Comprehensive analysis of 15 previously published regional databases
incorporating more than 100 sources leads to a newly revised historical
tsunami database for the northeastern (NE) region of the South China Sea
(SCS) including Taiwan. The validity of each reported historical tsunami
event listed in our database is assessed by comparing and contrasting the
information and descriptions provided in the other databases. All earlier
databases suffer from errors associated with inaccuracies in translation
between different languages, calendars and location names. The new database
contains 205 records of "events" reported to have occurred between
AD 1076 and 2009. We identify and investigate 58 recorded tsunami events in
the region. The validity of each event is based on the consistency and
accuracy of the reports along with the relative number of individual records
for that event. Of the 58 events, 23 are regarded as "valid" (confirmed)
events, three are "probable" events and six are "possible". Eighteen
events are considered "doubtful" and eight events "invalid". The most
destructive tsunami of the 23 valid events occurred in 1867 and affected
Keelung, northern Taiwan, killing at least 100 people. Inaccuracies in the
historical record aside, this new database highlights the occurrence and
geographical extent of several large tsunamis in the NE SCS region and allows
an elementary statistical analysis of annual recurrence intervals. Based on
historical records from 1951–2009 the probability of a tsunami (from any
source) affecting the region in any given year is relatively high (33.4%).
However, the likelihood of a tsunami that has a wave height >1 m, and/or
causes fatalities and damage to infrastructure occurring in the region in any
given year is low (1–2%). This work indicates the need for further research
using coastal stratigraphy and inundation modeling to help validate some of
the historical accounts of tsunamis as well as adequately evaluate the
recurrence intervals of tsunamis along the now heavily developed coastlines
of the region. |
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