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| Titel |
Dispersion of aerosol particles in the free atmosphere using ensemble forecasts |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Haszpra, I. Lagzi, T. Tél |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1023-5809
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics ; 20, no. 5 ; Nr. 20, no. 5 (2013-10-14), S.759-770 |
| Datensatznummer |
250086054
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/npg-20-759-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The dispersion of aerosol particle pollutants is studied using 50 members of
an ensemble forecast in the example of a hypothetical free atmospheric
emission above Fukushima over a period of 2.5 days. Considerable differences
are found among the dispersion predictions of the different ensemble members,
as well as between the ensemble mean and the deterministic result at the end
of the observation period. The variance is found to decrease with the
particle size. The geographical area where a threshold concentration is
exceeded in at least one ensemble member expands to a 5–10 times larger
region than the area from the deterministic forecast, both for air column
"concentration" and in the "deposition" field. We demonstrate that the
root-mean-square distance of any particle from its own clones in the ensemble
members can reach values on the order of one thousand kilometers. Even the
centers of mass of the particle cloud of the ensemble members deviate considerably
from that obtained by the deterministic forecast. All these indicate that an
investigation of the dispersion of aerosol particles in the spirit of
ensemble forecast contains useful hints for the improvement of risk
assessment. |
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