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| Titel |
Long-term temporal changes in the occurrence of a high forest fire danger in Finland |
| VerfasserIn |
H. M. Mäkelä, M. Laapas, A. Venäläinen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 8 ; Nr. 12, no. 8 (2012-08-16), S.2591-2601 |
| Datensatznummer |
250011051
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-2591-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate variation and change influence several ecosystem components
including forest fires. To examine long-term temporal variations of forest
fire danger, a fire danger day (FDD) model was developed. Using mean
temperature and total precipitation of the Finnish wildfire season
(June–August), the model describes the climatological preconditions of fire
occurrence and gives the number of fire danger days during the same time
period. The performance of the model varied between different regions in
Finland being best in south and west. In the study period 1908–2011, the
year-to-year variation of FDD was large and no significant increasing or
decreasing tendencies could be found. Negative slopes of linear regression
lines for FDD could be explained by the simultaneous, mostly not significant
increases in precipitation. Years with the largest wildfires did not stand
out from the FDD time series. This indicates that intra-seasonal variations
of FDD enable occurrence of large-scale fires, despite the whole season's
fire danger is on an average level. Based on available monthly climate data,
it is possible to estimate the general fire conditions of a summer. However,
more detailed input data about weather conditions, land use, prevailing
forestry conventions and socio-economical factors would be needed to gain
more specific information about a season's fire risk. |
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