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| Titel |
Bayesian networks modelling in support to cross-cutting analysis of water supply and sanitation in developing countries |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Dondeynaz, J. López Puga, C. Carmona Moreno |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 9 ; Nr. 17, no. 9 (2013-09-05), S.3397-3419 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085923
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-3397-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Despite the efforts made towards the Millennium Development Goals targets
during the last decade, improved access to water
supply or basic sanitation still remains unavailable for millions of people
across the world. This paper proposes a set of models that use 25 key
variables and country profiles from the WatSan4Dev data set involving water
supply and sanitation (Dondeynaz et al., 2012). This paper suggests the use
of Bayesian network modelling methods because they are more easily adapted to
deal with non-normal distributions, and integrate a qualitative approach for
data analysis. They also offer the advantage of integrating preliminary
knowledge into the probabilistic models. The statistical performance of the
proposed models ranges between 20 and 5% error rates, which are very
satisfactory taking into account the strong heterogeneity of variables.
Probabilistic scenarios run from the models allow an assessment of the
relationships between human development, external support, governance
aspects, economic activities and water supply and sanitation (WSS) access.
According to models proposed in this paper, gaining a strong poverty
reduction will require the WSS access to reach 75–76% through: (1) the
management of ongoing urbanisation processes to avoid slums development; and
(2) the improvement of health care, for instance for children.
Improving governance, such as institutional efficiency, capacities to make
and apply rules, or control of corruption is positively associated with WSS
sustainable development. The first condition for an increment of the HDP
(human development and poverty) remains of course an improvement of the
economic conditions with higher household incomes.
Moreover, a significant country commitment to the environment, associated
with civil society freedom of expression constitutes a favourable setting for
sustainable WSS services delivery. Intensive agriculture using irrigation
practises also appears as a mean for sustainable WSS thanks to multi-uses and
complementarities. With a WSS sector organised at national level, irrigation
practices can support the structuring and efficiency of the agriculture
sector. It may then induce rural development in areas where WSS access often
is set back compared to urban areas1. External financial support, called Official Development
Assistance (ODA CI), plays a role in WSS
improvement but comes last in the sensitivity analyses of models.
An overall 47% of the Official Development Assistance goes first to poor countries,
and is associated to governance aspects: (1) political stability and (2)
country commitment to the environment and civil society degree of freedom.
These governance aspects constitute a good framework for aid implementation
in recipient countries.
Modelling is run with the five groups of countries as defined in Dondeynaz et
al. (2012). Models for profile 4 (essential external support) and profile 5
(primary material consumption) are specifically detailed and analysed in this
paper. For countries in profile 4, fighting against water scarcity and
progressing desertification should be the priority. However, for countries in
profile 5, efforts should first concentrate on consolidation of political
stability while supporting diversification of the economic activities.
Nevertheless, for both profiles, reduction of poverty should remain the first
priority as previously indicated.
1 JMP statistics, 2004 http://www.wssinfo.org/data-estimates/table/, last access: 22 July 2013. |
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