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| Titel |
An approximate method of short-term tsunami forecast and the hindcasting of some recent events |
| VerfasserIn |
Yu. P. Korolev |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 11, no. 11 ; Nr. 11, no. 11 (2011-11-28), S.3081-3091 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009791
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-11-3081-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The paper presents a method for a short-term tsunami
forecast based on sea level data from remote sites. This method is based on
Green's function for the wave equation possessing the fundamental property
of symmetry. This property is well known in acoustics and seismology as the
reciprocity principle. Some applications of this principle on tsunami
research are considered in the current study. Simple relationships and
estimated transfer functions enabled us to simulate tsunami waveforms for
any selected oceanic point based only on the source location and sea level
data from a remote reference site. The important advantage of this method is
that it is irrespective of the actual source mechanism (seismic, submarine
landslide or other phenomena). The method was successfully applied to
hindcast several recent tsunamis observed in the Northwest Pacific. The
locations of the earthquake epicenters and the tsunami records from one of
the NOAA DART sites were used as inputs for the modelling, while tsunami
observations at other DART sites were used to verify the model. Tsunami
waveforms for the 2006, 2007 and 2009 earthquake events near Simushir Island
were simulated and found to be in good agreement with the observations. The
correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed tsunami
waveforms were from 0.50 to 0.85. Thus, the proposed method can be
effectively used to simulate tsunami waveforms for the entire ocean and also
for both regional and local tsunami warning services, assuming that they have
access to the real-time sea level data from DART stations. |
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