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| Titel |
A Model Instrument for Integrated Scenarios of Global Flood Risks |
| VerfasserIn |
Hessel Winsemius, Rens van Beek, Joost Knoop, Lineke Woelders, Karin de Bruijn |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2011
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 13 (2011) |
| Datensatznummer |
250047629
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Global change will affect flood risks. On the one hand, flood hazard may be affected as the
result of changes in climate and land cover. These influence the intensity and turnover of the
hydrological cycle. Consequently, runoff generation and the probability of flooding may
increase or decrease. On the other hand, impact of floods will most likely increase as
population and economic productivity are generally on the rise and concentrate in floodprone
(delta) areas.
“GLObal Flood Risk IMAGE Scenarios” (GLOFRIS) is a novel scenario instrument
which estimates the impact of changing land cover, climate and socio-economics
on flood risk on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 0.5Ã0.5 degrees. We
use the daily timestep global hydrological model PCRGLOB-WB to assess global
flood hazard now and in the future. PCRGLOB-WB is equipped with a dynamic
flood routing module, which allows for routing of overbank flow and inundation
within river cells. Integrated scenario’s of land cover change, climate change and
socio-economic changes from the “Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment”
(IMAGE) are used to assess globally (1) how flood hazard may change due to land
cover and climate changes, and (2) how flood impact changes as a consequence of
socio-economic changes. Flood impacts are expressed by several indicators related to
population density and Gross Domestic Product. Output is presented in the form of grid
maps and country-level relative numbers. GLOFRIS is built in the open model shell
Delft-FEWS.
In this paper, we describe and demonstrate methods to translate IMAGE scenarios into
parameterization for PCRGLOB-WB and evaluate the first results of changes in flood impacts
from the GLOFRIS system. |
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