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| Titel |
Climate change impact on groundwater levels: ensemble modelling of extreme values |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Kidmose, J. C. Refsgaard, L. Troldborg, L. P. Seaby, M. M. Escrivà |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 4 ; Nr. 17, no. 4 (2013-04-30), S.1619-1634 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018861
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-1619-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This paper presents a first attempt to estimate future groundwater levels by
applying extreme value statistics on predictions from a hydrological model.
Climate scenarios for the future period, 2081–2100, are represented by
projections from nine combinations of three global climate models and six
regional climate models, and downscaled (including bias correction) with two
different methods. An integrated surface water/groundwater model is forced
with precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration from the
18 models and downscaling combinations. Extreme value analyses are performed
on the hydraulic head changes from a control period (1991–2010) to the
future period for the 18 combinations. Hydraulic heads for return periods of
21, 50 and 100 yr (T21–100) are estimated. Three uncertainty sources
are evaluated: climate models, downscaling and extreme value statistics. Of
these sources, extreme value statistics dominates for return periods higher
than 50 yr, whereas uncertainty from climate models and extreme value
statistics are similar for lower return periods. Uncertainty from
downscaling only contributes to around 10% of the uncertainty from the
three sources. |
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