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| Titel |
Statistical modelling of wildfire size and intensity: a step toward meteorological forecasting of summer extreme fire risk |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Hernandez, C. Keribin, P. Drobinski, S. Turquety |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 33, no. 12 ; Nr. 33, no. 12 (2015-12-15), S.1495-1506 |
| Datensatznummer |
250121277
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-33-1495-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this article we investigate the use of statistical methods for wildfire
risk assessment in the Mediterranean Basin using three meteorological
covariates, the 2 m temperature anomaly, the 10 m wind speed and the
January–June rainfall occurrence anomaly. We focus on two remotely sensed
characteristic fire variables, the burnt area (BA) and the fire radiative
power (FRP), which are good proxies for fire size and intensity
respectively. Using the fire data we determine an adequate parametric
distribution function which fits best the logarithm of BA and FRP. We
reconstruct the conditional density function of both variables with respect
to the chosen meteorological covariates. These conditional density functions
for the size and intensity of a single event give information on fire risk
and can be used for the estimation of conditional probabilities of exceeding
certain thresholds. By analysing these probabilities we find two fire risk
regimes different from each other at the 90 % confidence level: a
"background" summer fire risk regime and an "extreme" additional fire
risk regime, which corresponds to higher probability of occurrence of larger
fire size or intensity associated with specific weather conditions. Such a
statistical approach may be the ground for a future fire risk alert system. |
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