 |
| Titel |
Impacts of emission reductions on aerosol radiative effects |
| VerfasserIn |
J.-P. Pietikäinen, K. Kupiainen, Z. Klimont, R. Makkonen, H. Korhonen, R. Karinkanta, A.-P. Hyvärinen, N. Karvosenoja, A. Laaksonen, H. Lihavainen, V.-M. Kerminen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1680-7316
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 15, no. 10 ; Nr. 15, no. 10 (2015-05-20), S.5501-5519 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119739
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-15-5501-2015.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The global aerosol–climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ was used to
investigate changes in the aerosol burden and aerosol radiative
effects in the coming decades. Four different emissions scenarios
were applied for 2030 (two of them applied also for 2020) and the
results were compared against the reference year 2005. Two of the
scenarios are based on current legislation reductions: one shows the
maximum potential of reductions that can be achieved by technical
measures, and the other is targeted to short-lived climate
forcers (SLCFs). We have analyzed the results in terms of global
means and additionally focused on eight subregions. Based on our
results, aerosol burdens show an overall decreasing trend as they
basically follow the changes in primary and precursor emissions.
However, in some locations, such as India, the burdens could
increase significantly. The declining emissions have an impact on
the clear-sky direct aerosol effect (DRE), i.e. the cooling effect.
The DRE could decrease globally 0.06–0.4 W m−2
by 2030 with some regional increases, for example, over India (up to 0.84 W m−2).
The global changes in the DRE depend on the scenario and are
smallest in the targeted SLCF simulation. The aerosol indirect
radiative effect could decline 0.25–0.82 W m−2 by 2030. This
decrease takes place mostly over the oceans, whereas the DRE changes
are greatest over the continents. Our results show that targeted
emission reduction measures can be a much better choice for the
climate than overall high reductions globally. Our simulations also
suggest that more than half of the near-future forcing change is due
to the radiative effects associated with aerosol–cloud interactions. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|