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| Titel |
Precipitation dominates fire occurrence in Greece (1900–2010): its dual role in fuel build-up and dryness |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Xystrakis, A. S. Kallimanis, P. Dimopoulos, J. M. Halley, N. Koutsias |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 1 ; Nr. 14, no. 1 (2014-01-03), S.21-32 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118228
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-21-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Historical fire records and meteorological observations spanning over one
century (1894–2010) were assembled in a database to collect long-term fire
and weather data in Greece. Positive/negative events of fire occurrence on
an annual basis were considered as the years where the annual values of the
examined parameters were above (positive values) or below (negative values)
the 95% confidence limits around the trend line of the corresponding
parameter. To analyse the association of positive/negative events of fire
occurrence with meteorological extremes, we proceeded with a cross-tabulation
analysis based on a Monte Carlo randomization.
Positive/negative values of total annual precipitation were randomly
associated with the corresponding values of burned areas, and significant
associations were observed for seasonal precipitation totals (spring and
fire season). Fire season precipitation is the dominant factor coinciding
with negative values of area burned, while years with high spring
precipitation coincide with years with large areas burned. These results
demonstrate the dual role of precipitation in controlling a fire's extent
through fuel build-up and dryness. Additionally, there is a clear
outperformance of precipitation-related variables compared with temperature-related weather
revealing that, at least in Greece, total area burned at the national
scale is controlled by precipitation totals rather than air temperature.
This analysis improves our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of
fire regimes and provides valuable information concerning the development of
models relating fire activity to weather parameters, which are essential
when facing a changing climate that may be associated with shifts in various
aspects of the typical fire regimes of ecosystems. Our results may allow
fire managers to more easily incorporate the effect of extreme weather
conditions into long-term planning strategies. They contribute to the
exploration of fire–climate relationships and may become more important if
climate change scenarios are used to predict the occurrence of future
extreme weather taking into consideration that climate change is discussed
on the basis of changes of extremes rather than changes in means. |
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