 |
| Titel |
Future high-mountain hydrology: a new parameterization of glacier retreat |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Huss, G. Jouvet, D. Farinotti, A. Bauder |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 5 ; Nr. 14, no. 5 (2010-05-26), S.815-829 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012303
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-14-815-2010.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Global warming is expected to significantly affect the runoff regime
of mountainous catchments. Simple methods for calculating future
glacier change in hydrological models are required in order to
reliably assess economic impacts of changes in the water cycle over
the next decades. Models for temporal and spatial glacier evolution
need to describe the climate forcing acting on the glacier, and ice
flow dynamics. Flow models, however, demand considerable computational
resources and field data input and are moreover not applicable on the
regional scale. Here, we propose a simple parameterization for
calculating the change in glacier surface elevation and area, which is
mass conserving and suited for hydrological modelling. The Δh-parameterization is an empirical glacier-specific function derived
from observations in the past that can easily be applied to large
samples of glaciers. We compare the Δh-parameterization to
results of a 3-D finite-element ice flow model. As case studies, the
evolution of two Alpine glaciers of different size over the period
2008–2100 is investigated using regional climate scenarios. The
parameterization closely reproduces the distributed ice thickness
change, as well as glacier area and length predicted by the ice flow
model. This indicates that for the purpose of transient runoff
forecasts, future glacier geometry change can be approximated using a
simple parameterization instead of complex ice flow
modelling. Furthermore, we analyse alpine glacier response to 21st
century climate change and consequent shifts in the runoff regime of a
highly glacierized catchment using the proposed methods. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|