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| Titel |
Impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation and hydrology in Finland – studies using bias corrected Regional Climate Model data |
| VerfasserIn |
T. Olsson, J. Jakkila, N. Veijalainen, L. Backman, J. Kaurola, B. Vehviläinen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 7 ; Nr. 19, no. 7 (2015-07-24), S.3217-3238 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120768
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-3217-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Assessment of climate
change impacts on climate and hydrology on catchment scale requires reliable
information about the average values and climate fluctuations of the past,
present and future. Regional climate models (RCMs) used in impact studies
often produce biased time series of meteorological variables. In this study
bias correction (BC) of RCM temperature and precipitation for Finland is
carried out using different versions of the distribution based scaling (DBS)
method. The DBS-adjusted RCM data are used as input of a hydrological model
to simulate changes in discharges of four study catchments in different parts
of Finland. The annual mean discharges and seasonal variation simulated with
the DBS-adjusted temperature and precipitation data are sufficiently close to
observed discharges in the control period 1961–2000 and produce more
realistic projections for mean annual and seasonal changes in discharges than
the uncorrected RCM data. Furthermore, with most scenarios the DBS method
used preserves the temperature and precipitation trends of the uncorrected
RCM data during 1961–2100. However, if the biases in the mean or the
standard deviation of the uncorrected temperatures are large, significant
biases after DBS adjustment may remain or temperature trends may change,
increasing the uncertainty of climate change projections. The DBS method
influences especially the projected seasonal changes in discharges and the
use of uncorrected data can produce unrealistic seasonal discharges and
changes. The projected changes in annual mean discharges are moderate or
small, but seasonal distribution of discharges will change significantly. |
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