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| Titel |
Are any public-reported earthquake precursors valid? |
| VerfasserIn |
N. E. Whitehead, U. Ulusoy, H. Asahara, M. Ikeya |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 4, no. 3 ; Nr. 4, no. 3 (2004-07-27), S.463-468 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001696
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-4-463-2004.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This article examines retrospective
public-supplied precursor reports statistically, and confirms published
hypotheses that some alleged precursors within 100km and within a day prior
to the large 1995 Kobe and 1999 Izmit earthquakes, may be valid. The
confirmations are mostly at the p<0.001 level of significance.
Most significant were alleged meteorological and geophysical precursors,
and less often, animal reports. The chi-squared test used, for the
first time eliminates the distorting effects of psychological factors on the
reports. However it also shows that correct reports are diluted with about
the same number which are merely wishful thinking, and obtaining more
reliable data would be logistically difficult. Some support is
found for another published hypothesis in which other precursors occurred
within the ten days prior to the earthquake. |
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